Well today is ground zone for the massive hype that has surrounded the launch of Apple's iPhone. It seems everyone(well most everyone) is standing in line for hours for the chance to pay $500 to $600 for a smartphone.
A cool phone? Absolutely. A gorgeous phone? You betcha. But it's still a $500-600 phone.
And for the people that are going home with one or a pair today, they are likely just fine with that. Everyone knows that Apple is going to sell a TON of iPhones today.
Many people are making guesses at how many iPhones will be sold this year. I think that number depends on Apple's ability to capitalize on the perceived value that the iPhone has today, and convert it into ACTUAL value.
Today is all about the hype. Hype that has been building for months around the iPhone. But after the hype fades, will the value as well? Will the iPhone be buggy? Will the glass screen crack or break easily if dropped? Will AT&T's network be able to handle demand? Or will it and the iPhone perform flawlessly and be a successful product line much like the iPod?
We just don't know at this point. But what we do know is that Apple is going to sell a ton of iPhones today on what users are viewing as its 'perceived' value. That value will quickly expire, and then the device's actual value will come into play.
How the iPhone's actual value measures up to its perceived value, will determine its future.
Bonus link: Laura Ries chimes in on Seth's prediction that iPhone will sell 2 million units this year (analysts say up to 3 million will be in stores today), and more next year. Laura doesn't think it will be a long-term success, and offers to buy Seth an iPhone if it is. Seth might get an iPhone, but I don't think it will come from Laura.
What do you think? Will iPhone be a long-term success? Will it be the revolutionary product that the iPod is? Or will it fizzle after the hype dies?
Tags:The Viral Garden, Marketing, iPhone