First we had to deal with 24/7 overhyping of services/sites such as Facebook and Pownce, now we are hearing some bloggers like Scoble and Shel say that blogging could be in decline.
Scoble says: "What I meant was that my friends who blog who are NOT A listers are seeing their traffic go down — even Maryam has noticed this. I theorized that was due to social networks like Facebook, Twitter, Jaiku, and Pownce’s rise. Most of the non-A-list bloggers have been showing up on those places in droves. After all, if you are only writing a blog to tell your family what your new kid is doing then something like Facebook is a lot better for that."
Er, or it could be this magical thing called 'summertime'. I seem to remember most bloggers saying their traffic fell about this same time last year.
Shel goes the more sensible route with: "I had noticed that my number of visitors had been steadily dropping for the last couple of months, even though my topics and frequency of posting had not really changed much. Technorati was still ranking me in my usual range.
This puzzled me. Technorati really measures a blog in relationship to all the others. If my ranking and so-called "authority" was holding steady it mean that everyone else was experiencing the same thing. I started asking other bloggers--only a small handful--but they all told me that they were experiencing some slippage over the past couple of months."
Personally, I'm not seeing it. My traffic to the blog had been at or near record levels for the entire year, up until about 3 weeks ago, when it started tailing off. Since the same thing happened last year at the same time, I attributed it to the gorgeous weather outside, more than anything else.
But my number of daily feed readers continues to surge. Back in February, I was averaging roughly the same number of daily visitors as daily feed readers. Since that time, the number of daily visitors has increased only marginally month to month, while the number of daily feed readers has almost tripled. Comments per post are also up.
I've also talked to a few other bloggers and they are all either reporting that their traffic is either holding, or increasing. All seem to be seeing their feed readers increasing as well.
What do you think? Is the blogging bottom about to fall out, or is this silly nonsense that can be attributed to the fact that it's summer? Personally, I think this is mostly a few A-Listers fishing for links...
UPDATE: Shel adds in the comments - "Thanks for the reference. Just to be clear, neither Scoble nor I nor Hugh MacLeod have said anything about the bottom of blogging falling out. What I stated was that among bloggers I speak with, I have noticed a downtick, which now seems to be an uptick. I am not measuring visitors and subscribers, but Google Analytic numbers against Technorati. I don't much trust Alexis numbers, but they would indicate I've been going to Hell in a hand basket over 12 months. I was not ready to make this a public conversation when Scoble posted. That was because I'm not certain what I have observed means for me, or for the other 72 million bloggers."
Tags:The Viral Garden, Marketing